MAXIN GLOBAL FUND - USD is a Long / Short Directional hedge Fund incorporated in Luxembourg. It started trading on February,22 2022 and replaces MAXIN ADVISORS' MODEL PORTFOLIO which has been trading since January 1st 2014.
Inflation / Recession Reversal
With today’s simultaneous release of much better PPI inflation numbers and the worst retail sales decline since 2020, our expected shift in the market narrative from inflation to recession is confirmed and a significant reversal took place in equity markets precisely at the 200-days moving average in the SP500.
The damage was particularly visible in the old economy Dow stocks with the Dow Jones Industrial Index painting a truly ugly picture of a multiple tops since December and now a clear lower high.
100 % of the stocks in the index where negative and the decline was led by consumer goods such as MMM, KO, JPM or PG
Investors are finally realising that business conditions re turning seriously sour, but they are still way too optimistic when it comes to earnings.
At the same time, individual investors have become highly optimistic again, a sure sign that a decline is at hand.
Our roadmap of a decline into February is playing out to the dot and our portfolio is clearly tilted to the downside with a 118 % short exposure and a 74 % net short exposure.
We have been reducing China significantly as the market there are overbought and due for a breather.
After the January Rally and the failure of the indexes to make new highs above the December High, today’s reversal points to a decline that will be testing our technical levels of 3’800 and 3’700.
Next week will be crucial with the earnings of the mega cap technology stocks and we will have to watch the October lows for a sign of the next leg.
New Asset Allocation
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